Value Picks: players that have a current average draft position (ADP) that is lower than what I would expect to be
Buyers Beware: players that have a current ADP that is hgher than what I would expect to be. This does not necessarily mean that I believe they are going to be busts.
Deep Targets: fringe players that are drafted late or not at all but that can be fantasy relevant in leagues with many teams, big rosters or both
Rookie Alerts: first-year players with an assessment on their fantasy viability
Price is Right: players that have a current ADP in the range I would expect it to be
The ADPs in this column refers to half-PPR redraft leagues and are sourced from FantasyPros
Value Picks
Jaron Brown, ADP 327 (WR111)
Coach Carroll loves this man. So much so he made him the official WR2 to start the year. While most of the praise for Brown falls on skills (blocking, football IQ, reliability) that are not relevant for fantasy purposes he did have his most efficient in the first year under Carroll’s care. He posted an unspectacular 8.7 yards per target and a catch rate of 73.7%, both career highs. Last year his fantasy production was discountinous due to several injuries that reshaped the WR squad every other week. This year the WR2 designation might result in a more consistent output. At the current ADP he is certainly a deep league target but I believe he could be the last round pick even in shallower leagues.
Marquise Goodwin, ADP 194 (WR68)
On one side he has yet to record a 1,000 yard season. On the other, in two seasons he has proven he can also be a possession receiver and not just a big play threat. More importantly, he developed an immediate chemistry with Garoppolo in the late games of the 2018 season.
He will be pushed for targets by the two rookies (see below) but starts as the clear WR1 on the Niners’ depth chart. Explain to me how he is getting drafted so late, going after Marquise Brown and Parris Campbell. Tremendous value pick at the current ADP, even accounting for Goodwin’s frequent trips to the inury report.
Todd Gurley, ADP 14 (RB9)
I fully understand the concerns about Gurley’s utilisation rate and bad efficiency late in the 2019 season. This should not overshadow that he was the top fantasy RB in back-to-back years. Had he played 16 games the past season he would have likely matched his scrimmage yards from 2018 (2,093) and eclipsed his TD totals. He grabbed 21 TDs in 14 games and had only one bad fantasy game (week 11 vs KC) during the entire season.
Now, let’s be forward-looking. He is still expected to be on the field on 80% of the Rams snaps, admittedly a decline compared to 90% last year. Is it a worrying sign? Not really, he could definitely compensate lower volumes with higher efficiency, especially in the big plays department. He still plays in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Injury-wise, if his loads are more closely monitored, that could be a good thing in the long-run, also for fantasy owners. For me he is still a top-5 RB, neck and neck with David Johnson. I really do not believe he should drop out of the first round in standard leagues.
Cooper Kupp, ADP 50 (WR21)
Kupp’s excellent ball skills translated brilliantly in his two first NFL seasons. Despite a crowded WR group he has taken all the opportunities that were offered to him. In the second season he also improved his efficiency numbers, posting a 10.3 yards per target ratio and a 72.7% catch rate. According to reports he has fully recovered from the torn ACL that ended his 2019 season prematurely. McVay knows he is a pivotal part of the offense and will find ways to get him more involved, especially in the short passing game. I believe he belongs in the top-15 WR group this year. I would not be surprised if he ends up posting Thielen’s numbers by the end of the year.
Buyers Beware
Robert Woods, ADP 40 (WR16)
The wider fantasy community is finally taking notice of Wood’s rich repertoire and overall reliability. But we are going a bit overboard here. He is getting drafted in the same range of Brandin Cooks and a good ten slots before Cooper Kupp. While he is coming off his best season both on a volume basis and on an efficiency basis we should not forget it was the first season since 2015 he could stay healthy and play 16 games. I believe this season he will experience some regression, especially on the volume side since he is fated to lose targets to Cooper Kupp and the young TEs. Even if he repeats the same number from last year his current ADP is basically his ceiling level. You cold do better with a top-40 pick,
Malcolm Brown, ADP 195 (RB61) & Darrel Henderson, ADP 113 (RB41)
This beware advice is linked to the value pick I see in Gurley. I do not feel that the RB2 in the Rams’ offense should be drafted in the top-150. They will have fewer touches than people expect and they will be game-script dependent. I do not see much handcuff value, either. If Gurley goes down, those two are likely to split carries.
Deep Targets
Charles Clay, ADP N/A
After a bad year in Buffalo with awful efficiency numbers he gets to play with another rookie QB, which in itself is usally a good thing for a TE. While I believe most of his abysmal season last year was due to his repeated deployment as a WR (due to lack of better alternatives), this year he gets to play the typical TE role in a pass-heavy offese.
He will probably go undrafted but he has both a better floor and a better ceiling than most TE that will be drafted in the later rounds. If you do not have others stakes in the Arizona offense, why not take a leap of faith with your last pick?
Trent Taylor, ADP N/A
He is expected to serve as the primary slot receiver in the Niners’ offense. He is flying under the radar, overshadowed by the rookie WRs and the packed backfield but he may end up being one of the top 3 weapons in this offense. He’s been decleared out for week 1 which further put him in fantasy limbo. He is a nice value pick in later rounds if you have an IR slot. Otherwise, he is an intriguing deep league waiver wire targets to closely monitor.
Josh Reynolds, ADP 267 (WR90)
Reynolds gained the trust of the coaching staff with some solid performances once Kupp went down with an injury in 2019. He is now collecting those dividends as he has sealed the WR4 in the prolific Rams offense. He has displayed he could be a nice contributor in the endzone (6 TD in 8 games started), taking advantage of the spaces open by the other stars of the offense. He should definitely be drafted in deep leagues.
Rookie Alerts
Andy Isabella, ADP 234 (WR80)
He is a very interesting prospect. He will need to fight hard for targets in a receving group that just added Crabtree to the mix. The talent is there and the first-year WR discount is also incorporated in his ADP. I guess he could be a stash pick for later in the year but he needs injuries in front of him to be fantasy relevant in the early weeks.
DK Metcalf, ADP 136 (WR53)
OK, here is the deal. Metcalf was my favorite WR rookie at his ADP before he had knee surgery during training camp. It does not help that the Seahawks organization is one of the most secretive on the injury status of their players. I can definitely seem him having an impact in his first year. There will be some growing pians for sure and this injury will push pack the his development. Nevertheless, at the current (deflated) ADP he is still a great upside pick to make. I just wish the injury did not happen so that he would have made a nice value pick around the 9th round.
Gary Jennings, ADP 423 (WR148)
He is not as heralded as Metcalf but he might have the first shot at becoming a feature in the offense due to the injury status of Metcalf and David Moore. I see no harm in getting on this lotto ticket on draft day in deep leagues. But regardless of league format, we should all pay attenton to his snap count in week 1
Deebo Samuel, ADP 170 (WR61) & Jalen Hurd, ADP 238 (WR81)
They were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, respectively. This, on surface level, should justify the difference in their current ADPs. At the start of August the news out of training camp put Jalen Hurd ahead in terms of what he was showing on the field. Then the news cycle turned more in favour of Deebo Samuel. More recently, Hurd was decleared out for week 1 with a back injury. This latest news probably makes the current ADP ranking more reasonable. However, given the different ways the Niners season can evolve and the packed WR room I would refrain to draft both, if not very late in the draft
Price is Right
Kyler Murray is going slightly above where Mahomes was going the past season. There is probably a “Mahomes effect” in his ADP so you have this feeling owners are a bit overpaying for him. However, the current price is still reasonable to get on this fun ride. If Arizona’s brand new offense will be as fun as expected you’ll double the fun picking him as your staring QB.
David Johnson certainly belongs in the first round even with all the uncertainty related to the new Cardinals’ offensive project. They will find ways to get him the ball this year. There is a natural cap given by the fact that Arizona is likely to struggle in games and fall behind. But the same could be said for the Giants offense and yet Saquon Barkley is still the consensun number 1 pick. Would I pick him with the 4th or 5th overall pick? Probably, although it really depends on your league settings.
Larry Fitzgerald is Larry Fitzgerald. If he is still available at the current ADP, or even slightly above you take him. He deserves our complete trust.
While I believe Russell Wilson‘s ADP in the late 7th round to be fairly priced, I would refrain to draft him in that range. Mostly, because he has proved times and times again that he starts slow and gets better throughout the year. I do not think this will change this year. He is going to be a buy low target by week 3.
Tyler Lockett‘s ADP is a good example of how it is getting increasingly more difficult to find value picks in fantasy football. He comes with the tag of a deep receiver threat and he is certainly also that. You would hope most people would not realise he is also a polished route-runner and a credible endzone threat. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. The current ADP incorporates all the expectations of higher volumes this year.If his efficiency stays the same and he does not lose redzone targets to, say, DK Metcalf he has a good shot at getting in the WR top-15 at the end of the year. Considering he is getting drafted as a high-end WR2 the price is more than fair.
If anyone can tell you know how the splits in the Niners’ backfield is going to pan out, he is talking out of pure speculation. Given the uncertainties about the different RBs usage, added to Jared McKinnon return from a serious injury, it is unlikely that you will be super confident about drafting any of McKinnon, Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman. Regardless of what you think of them as players (I personally strongly prefer Coleman to the other two), there is no way to know how Shanahan plans to utilise them. There is a good chance they will cannabilise each other and none of them becomes a consistent RB2 play. The good news is that their current ADPs are all fairly priced. Therefore, go ahead and pick the one you like the most if you want to invest in the Niners’ offense.
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