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Value Picks: players that have a current average draft position (ADP) that is lower than what I would expect to be
Buyers Beware: players that have a current ADP that is hgher than what I would expect to be. This does not necessarily mean that I believe they are going to be busts.
Deep Targets: fringe players that are drafted late or not at all but that can be fantasy relevant in leagues with many teams, big rosters or both
Rookie Alerts: first-year players with an assessment on their fantasy viability
Price is Right: players that have a current ADP in the range I would expect it to be
The ADPs in this column refers to half-PPR redraft leagues and are sourced from FantasyPros
Value Picks
Lamar Jackson, ADP: 131 (QB18)
Jackson ADP is currently outside the QB top-16, which means it is not considered a fantasy starter, even in deep leagues. While there might be QBs with more upside taken above him, taking Lamar in the later rounds gives you a rather solid floor. We now a good indicative sample of ‘running’ QBs in their sophomore seasons in the NFL. Some have fallen to injuries (RGIII), others have developed into high accuracy passers (Russel Wilson). On some others the jury is still out on whether they can sustain high level of production both in rushing yards and scoring while increasing passing totals (Josh Allen but also Deshaun Watson).
One possible comparable for Jackson is Cam Newton. While posting numbers that were nowhere near Cam Newton’s rookie season, Jackson 2018 completions percentage is similar to Newton’s career, 58.2% and 59.7%, respectively. This should put to rest concerns on Lamar’s accuracy as related to his ability to produce from a fantasy perspective.
This season I would expect Lamar Jackson to significantly increase his pass attempts as the Ravens’ offense need to shift towards a less one-dimensional offense. While I’m not high on Ingram (see below) his acquisition means that the Ravens are going to pass the ball more out of the backfield, as Ingram has quietly developed in an efficient pass-catching back in New Orleans. Dump-offs to a capable RB are a reliable source of fantasy points for run-oriented QBs.
Jackson’s 10 rush TD per-game seems to be sustainable in his second season as the offense has still few redzone weapons aside from him and Ingram. All of this point to a QB with an higher floor than most predict. That being said, I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to have much fantasy upside (he won’t break the top 10 QB list at the end of the year) and you will find better value picks in other parts of this column. But, hey, if you plan to wait on drafting a QB until the later rounds and you like the floor of Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards go for it.
Jonh Ross III, ADP 265 (WR91)
This is a sad football story. Picked 9th overall in 2017 draft, still holds the record for the fastest 40yds dash at the NFL combine (4.22 seconds) and has an abysmal catching rate of 35% on 58 targets over 2 injury-riddled seasons. Jonh Ross III current ADP is WR94, a full 70 WRs later than teammate Tyler Boyd which had his break-out season last year. Noticeably, Ross had the same number of TDs than Boyd (7) last season, which if we are optimistic, shows that Ross is able to catch the ball when it matters the most.
There are several excuses that can be made for Jonn Ross, starting from an incompetent head coach in Marvin Lewis who always struggled to develop offensive players and finishing with several injuries. On the good side, Marvin Lewis is out of Cincinnati, on the bad side Ross is currently sitting out practices with a minor injury which should further depress his ADP. But you know who else is injured in the Bengals WR corps? You guessed it, the other injury aficionado A.J. Green who is out at least for 3-4 games of the regular season. Clearly there is an opportunity to show for John Ross as WR2 in an offense that while not spectacular can still sustain two fantasy-relevant WRs. And if you believe like me that talent coached the right way can bloom later in the career then you should probably take a long look at John Ross. You may get a 7th rounder return from a 12th round pick
Buyers Beware
Mark Ingram, ADP: 49 (RB23)
Full disclosure: I never rated Mark Ingram as a player. Granted, he gradually improved his pass-catching skills while in New Orleans and has been a serviceable fantasy option in repeated seasons. However, it does not strike like the kind of player that would benefit from a change of scenery. Ingram’s fantasy production was a consequence of the functional role he played in one of the best offenses in the league. What does it bring to Baltimore? He is expected to bear most of the carries, especially on the goal-line but he’s playing with a QB that will vulture more than one scoring TD. Moreover, Ravens’ backfield is much more crowded than it appears. Gus Edwards will have a role, Kenneth Dixon is still in the picture, Tyler Erwin is impressing in training camp and could get a look during the season, rookie sensation Justice Hill is turning heads in Baltimore’s coaching staff. Ingram’s current ADP suggests a low-end RB2 but I see a RB with a lot of question marks. If you believe Baltimore Ravens is still going to be heavily run-oriented Ingram could still yield a RB2 return just because of sheer volume but if you believe in a shift to passing then you should refrain to draft Ingram in the top 50.
James Washington ADP 125 (WR50)
This is a preventive Buyers Beware because at the current ADP James Washington still makes sense but as overwhelmingly good reports come out of Steelers’s camp his ADP is starting to climb. As a borderline WR top-50 pick with upside to breach the top-30 by the end of the year I think you can do better than Washington but you’ll be paying the right price. If he keeps climbing the price becomes too steep for me. Big Ben needs to show he can still feed more than one mouth when Antonio Brown is not in the huddle and Juju will be the primadonna of this offense even if he gets double-coverage week in and week out. To his credit, James Washington has improved his catch rate in his last starts (61% in December) after an egregious start of the year in that respect. However, he didn’t show any consistency or reliability in his rookie season and received only three overall looks in the endzone. If the rapport with Big Ben does not evolve he’s not necessarily a lock to keep WR2 duty all year along (Moncrief is the nominal WR right now). And, even if does, this is not the Pittsburgh offense we are used to so the WR2 role might not return WR3 value in fantasy.
Deep Targets
Gus Edwards, ADP: 258 (RB72)
I mentioned in Ingram’s section how this backfield is more of a fantasy maze than it appears. Gus Edwards demonstrated he could work as the primary RB in a heavy-oriented backfield and has the trust of the coaching staff. He’ll have opportunities. He’s definitely worth a shot in deep leagues.
Donte Moncrief, ADP 146 (WR55)
This is deep league target that also doubles down as a value pick for later rounds. He’s getting drafted after James Washington but he’s still WR2 in the current depth chart. He’s a known commodity. I doubt we will get a superstar season out of him but if Pittsburgh offense rolls the right way and doesn’t lose any of the fantasy production of the recent years Moncrief will be there to benefit. He’s a boring pick but that’s exactly why it’s valuable.
Jaylen Samuels, ADP 129 (RB44)
Pittsburgh historically sticks to the bell-cow RB model but Samuels showed flashes of competency last year. He’ll have chances to eat in Conner’s carries. If not, he still represents one of the best RB handcuffs around the league. In deep leagues this by itself is of great value.
Chris Moore, ADP 429 (WR151)
After his first two forgettable seasons Chris Moore has been a good contributor for Baltimore. To be fair, this was mostly due to the depleted receiving corps but nonetheless Chris Moore is getting completely ignored in fantasy drafts this year. If your league takes that into account returning yards his special team involvement is an additional nice-to-have. If you make it your final pick of the draft in deep leagues you may get lucky because Raven’s receiving squad is still rather thin.
Rookie Alerts
Miles Boykin, ADP 268 (WR91)
The Notre Dame product has been impressive in camp and has already shown a nose for the endzone in the preseason. He may soon become one of the most important redzone target for Lamar Jackson. This is starting to look a bit more than a lotto ticket. As far as WRs go he should definitely be on your draft day radar
DJ Montgomery ADP N/A
He is showing a lot of skill for an undrafted rookie but Browns’ WRs all seems to be on fire in camp. He might end up getting cut or he might end up WR4 in Cleveland or somewhere else in the league. Do not draft but keep an eye on him.
Justice Hill ADP 156 (RB56)
Justice Hill has a much tougher road to fantasy relevance than Boyking due to the crowded backfield. However, he’s having a blast of a preseason breaking tackles left and right. He is a nice lotto ticket in deeper league.
Damion Willis ADP N/A
This kid came out of nowhere to claim a starting WR spot next to Tyler Boyd while AJ Green is out for the beginning of the season. He is a product of Last Chance U that was able to actually turn his life and career around. Whether this move is a ploy of the coachng staff to motivate more veteran receivers or a real endorsement of Willis’ skills is hard to tell. For sure, the opportunities are going to be there early on for this undrafted rookie, which makes him an immediate deep league target.
Price is Right
Jarvis Landry has always been a reliable and consistent fantasy contributor. He’s coming off a bad season from an efficiency perspective (lowest catch rate ever for his career 54.4% and a meddling 6.7 yards per target). With OBJ set to dominate targets in Cleveland’s offense the volume is going to collapse. The current ADP seems to reflect these expectations. You should grab him knowing he will be a boom or bust option every week.
Marquise Brown is talent-wise one of the best WRs in this year draft, opportunity-wise the Ravens’ WR corps is not ripe with talent so he’ll have plenty of ground to shine. Question marks are his current injury, Ravens’s terrible track record with rookie WRs (and dealing with injured WRs) and Ravens’ offense in general. He’s basically a lotto ticket that is currently at the right price.
Mark Andrews showed good flashes in his rookie season and we all know that good TEs break out in their sophomore seasons. The Ravens TE ensemble also includes Boyle and Hurst which are fated to take away some targets even if Mark Andrews establish himself as the primary TE. Nice lotto ticket to have at the current ADP but if you’re looking at more reliable options at the position, look away.
At a very thin TE position Vance MacDonald is going exactly where he should go in drafts. If you like the Steelers offense grab him at his current ADP
Baker Mayfield‘s hype is real but the current ADP already includes all the hype so you are not getting any value out of picking him up at the 5th/6th turn in 12-team league. Draft him if he drops in the 6th or just to get on Brown’s offense wild ride.
Odell Beckham Junior at the 1st/2nd round turn might actually be a value pick but I don’t necessarily think drafting him in the 8th-10th pick range is a bad investment. He has the upside to be the best WR in fantasy this year but he is in a radically different situation than previous fantasy season which grants some restraint.
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